Oil falls more than 4% as Iran talks in Doha produce a draft proposal

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday, 2 November, as signs of progress in Qatari-mediated talks with Iran eased some of the fear priced into crude over the past month. By early morning in New York, January Brent was trading at $108.49 a barrel, down $4.94 or 4.4%, while December WTI had fallen 4.5% to $99.39, according to Cornerstone Futures.

Diplomacy moves the market

Iranian negotiators left talks with Qatari mediators in Doha carrying a draft proposal, which is now circulating among the mediators. Nothing has been agreed, and a follow-up meeting is possible; Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi described the talks as “ongoing and progressing.” Axios, cited by The National, reported that President Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he wanted to give diplomacy more time before weighing renewed strikes, which could come after Tuesday’s US midterm elections.

The fall follows a powerful rally. The National notes that Brent gained roughly 15% and WTI about 12% in October, touching their highest levels since April.

The risk has not left the Gulf

The physical picture remains fragile. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported on Sunday that a ship had been hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, after an attack on a liquefied natural gas tanker on Friday. UBS expects Brent to remain near $110 at year-end, with analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointing to “record freight costs, constrained tanker capacity, and recovering Chinese imports.” Saxo reports that Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent forecast to $105 for December and $88 on average in 2027, while OPEC+ has kept output targets unchanged through December.

Why it matters for leaders

Georgia imports most of its petroleum products, so the pump price, freight rates and inflation all track the global barrel. In April 2026, as Hormuz tensions pushed energy costs higher, a parliamentary commission reviewed fuel pricing with the country’s main importers. Monday’s drop is welcome, but it rests on a draft text rather than a deal, and prices remain far above last year’s levels.

For Georgian businesses, the sensible stance is to plan for volatility rather than relief: keep transport and energy budgets stress-tested at today’s levels, watch the outcome of the Doha track and any post-election US decision this week, and treat a lasting fall in fuel and freight costs as upside, not as the base case.

Sources

Photo: Fredrick F. / Unsplash