Chief executives are more confident about their own companies than about the economies around them. That is the central tension in KPMG’s 2026 CEO Outlook, published in October, which surveyed 1,400 CEOs of companies with revenue above US$500 million across 12 markets between 11 August and 21 September 2026.
Confident in the company, cautious on the economy
Among the 150 UK chief executives in the survey, 86% are confident in their company’s growth over the next three years, up from 74% in 2025, and 83% plan acquisitions. Yet confidence in the UK economy fell from 79% to 64%. Globally, confidence in the world economic outlook has slipped for a third year: 70% in 2024, 65% in 2025 and 63% in 2026.
The pattern is familiar to anyone who runs a business in a volatile region: leaders trust what they can control and discount what they cannot. KPMG’s data suggests they are planning accordingly — 96% of UK CEOs say they have moved resilience planning to a long-term horizon, and 47% name greater agility and faster decision-making as the defining qualities of a resilient chief executive.
AI is now an organisational design question
Some 82% of UK CEOs rank AI as a top investment priority, and 87% expect a return within three years — a sharp change from 2024, when 83% said payback would take at least three years. The more telling shift is in people: 77% are hiring talent with AI and technology skills, up from 58% a year earlier, and 85% are redesigning roles, career paths and team structures for human–AI collaboration, up from 71%.
Risk is rising with ambition. 89% worry about vulnerability to cyber-attacks, 81% describe AI’s ethical considerations as very or mostly challenging, and 49% are tightening internal data governance in response to data-sovereignty concerns.
The human edge
Jon Holt, Group Chief Executive of KPMG UK and Switzerland, put the leadership point plainly: “confidence alone is not enough,” adding that “a machine doesn’t have empathy, judgement or emotional intelligence.” As technology absorbs more analytical work, those qualities become the differentiator in the C-suite rather than a soft extra.
What leaders can do
- Separate company confidence from macro assumptions: stress-test plans against a weaker economy, not just a stronger company.
- Treat AI as a redesign of roles and career paths, with clear owners and a three-year return target.
- Make decision speed a measured capability — fewer approval layers, clearer mandates.
- Put cyber security, data governance and AI ethics on the board agenda together, not as separate silos.
- Invest deliberately in judgement and empathy in senior teams; they are what AI cannot replace.
Sources
Photo: Marc Wieland / Unsplash